Solana ETF: Can it be approved this year? What impact will it have on the market?

After the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, the market's attention turned to the next potential ETF target: Solana. Several companies have submitted applications for Solana ETF, which has sparked heated discussions on the possibility that SOL spot ETF will be approved this year.

Latest progress in Solana ETF

Recently, Volatility Shares' two Solana futures ETFs have been included in the US Securities Centralized Custody and Settlement Company (DTCC), indicating that the Solana ETF ecosystem has entered a critical stage and has also increased the expectation of SOL spot ETF approval. DTCC plays a central role in global financial markets, and its list means that these products are ready to be traded in traditional markets.

The approval of SOL spot ETF will attract institutional investment and enhance Solana's market liquidity and stability. But the final decision of the SEC depends on factors such as the regulatory environment and cryptocurrency market performance.

Main applicants

VanEck, Volatility Shares and other companies have submitted Solana ETF applications to the SEC. VanEck's application defines SOL as a commodity, not a securities, which is contrary to the SEC's previous recognition of SOL. Volatility Shares applied for Solana futures ETFs with different leverage multiples.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, believes that SOL's functions are similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and its decentralization, high practicality and economic viability make it a commodity. He also announced VanEck's application on Twitter:

I am excited to announce that VanEck just filed for the FIRST Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US.

Some thoughts on why we believe SOL is a commodity are below.

Why did we file for it?
A competitor to Ethereum, Solana is open-source blockchain software designed to…pic.twitter.com/XwwPy8BXV2

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel)June 27, 2024

Bloomberg ETF analysts believe that Volatility Shares' application indicates the possibility of spot Solana ETF approval. The SEC has recently acknowledged the Solana ETF applications of several issuers, indicating that the approval process has progressed. However, it should be noted that listing of DTCC does not mean that the fund can trade immediately.

Probability of approval this year?

SEC approved several Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, and then approved the Ethereum spot ETF. Bloomberg ETF analysts predict that the probability of Solana spot ETF being approved by the end of 2025 is 70%.

The approval of the Solana ETF will mark the further development of the integration of blockchain and traditional finance, but the biggest obstacle is still a legal issue. The SEC previously identified SOL as an unregistered securities and SOL lacks a mature futures market.

Market maker GSR believes that Solana has strong market demand and a highly decentralized network, which is expected to attract ETF issuers. They predict that if SOL's inflows reach 5% of Bitcoin, its price could rise more than triple. JPMorgan analysts expect the approved Solana ETF spot could attract $3 billion to $6 billion in assets in the first year.

SOL future price trend

As of February 28, 2025, the SOL price was $137.85. SOL currently ranks sixth in market value, with a 24-hour trading volume of $9.6 billion.

Summary

The approval of the Solana ETF and its time will have a significant impact on the price of Solana and the overall cryptocurrency market. Although facing challenges such as legal and market maturity, its potential market opportunities and institutional investment attractiveness cannot be ignored.

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