Tires was not automatically renewed for season 3 when season 2 got the green light. And now that season 2 has aired, there’s still no official confirmation of a third season. Still, after doing this for a while, I feel confident enough to make an educated guess — and in this case, Tires season 3 is practically guaranteed. Let's break down the five factors Netflix considers for renewal:

Viewership: Season 2 of Tires debuted at #2 on Netflix’s top 10 list in the US. The only reason it didn’t hit #1 is likely because it’s airing at the same time as Ginny and Georgia season 3, which fans have been waiting 2.5 years for. We don’t have full viewership data beyond the top 10 list yet, but we do know season 1 performed exceptionally well, ranking second only to the massive hit Bridgerton in streaming rankings back in May 2024.

Cost: Tires is almost certainly one of the cheapest scripted shows on Netflix. Aside from Shane Gillis (and whether he counts as a big star is up for debate), the show doesn’t feature any major names. It also requires minimal production value — very few locations and absolutely no visual effects. In Netflix’s production lineup, this is basically chump change. That low cost also allows for long gaps between seasons, like the year-long break between season 1 and 2.

Reception: Critical reception improved significantly from season 1 to season 2, jumping from a 40% to a 71% critics score. More importantly for Netflix, though, the audience score for the latest season came in at 94%, showing it’s really resonating with viewers. While critical praise probably isn’t the main driver for Netflix renewals — they care most about getting big numbers for cheap — it definitely doesn’t hurt.

Stickiness: This is the one area where we don’t have concrete data — whether people actually finish the season or drop off early, which heavily influences renewal decisions. But with Tires, that seems like a non-issue. The show delivers 12 episodes, many under 20 minutes, making it super easy to binge.

So here’s my call: I’m betting everything. There’s a 100% chance Tires gets a season 3, unless somehow the entire cast decides to quit (which is highly unlikely). It might take a little while before Netflix officially announces it (everyone involved should probably start negotiating for higher paychecks), but mark my words — it’s coming.

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