In recent times, news publishers are experiencing unwelcome surprises in the form of declining web traffic. This is problematic because these publishers have already had to shift from physical print to online platforms, a transition that has proven difficult for many. (Consider newspapers.)

Now we see that Google’s latest updates to its search model are adding another layer of complexity for these traditional businesses.

Reports in The Information and other sources indicate that conventional publishers are at a disadvantage as Google rolls out AI-powered search features that challenge the traditional blue hyperlink SERP directory format.

We’re Relying on AI for Search

As I mentioned while discussing comments by OpenAI’s Sam Altman not long ago, even Altman himself uses ChatGPT for tasks he used to perform via Google.

When you multiply this shift across millions of users, it creates a concerning scenario for those in the news industry. We're captivated by the ability of LLMs to scan the entire Internet in seconds, synthesize data into coherent responses, and deliver immediate answers without requiring us to do the tedious legwork.

But this convenience comes at a cost for those dependent on the older system.

Seeing Traffic Drop

Publishers who have already struggled with evolving revenue models are now noticing that their digital presence — once a reliable source of visibility and conversions — is performing worse than before.

Rebecca Bellan at Techcrunch reports that the New York Times saw a drop in organic traffic, falling from 44% in previous months to 36.5% in April — an unusual metric for tracking declining search performance, but still indicative of a real issue.

A Slightly Damning Insight

Further reports based on internal Apple communications suggest that the company may have leveraged its dominance in traditional search to gain influence.

Journalists reviewing internal Alphabet directives claim that Google could have offered better terms to publishers, but instead chose to require them to allow their content to be used by AI if they wanted to remain visible in traditional search — a Faustian bargain where the publisher willingly participates in their own marginalization.

Conversely, defenders of Google argue that the company introduced something called Offerwall as a potential alternative revenue stream for publishers.

Offerwall, they say, allows creators to earn income beyond advertising — though only if users actually complete the offers.

Why Micropayments Aren’t Working?

Another proposed solution — allowing readers to pay small fees for individual articles — remains largely theoretical.

However, according to some within the industry, this approach is likely to fail due to several major drawbacks.

One issue is that news media is typically consumed as a bundled offering.

“If a subscription is worth a hundred dollars a year to a publisher, then even one person clicking on the twenty-cent button instead means the publisher needs five hundred people to buy articles to make up for the lost revenue,” writes James Ball at the Columbia Journalism Review. “The numbers vary between outlets, but the math is daunting. … There's also a philosophical concern. As noted, newspapers and magazines are traditionally seen as a package — combining light and heavy content. Some stories cost far more to produce than others, but it balances out when you purchase the full product. That logic disappears when you break them apart.”

Incidentally, few have attempted to build hyper-local newsrooms on tight budgets, tied to mobile apps and offering subscribers low-cost access to neighborhood news.

Perhaps legal risks are holding people back.

Does It Get the Facts Right?

There’s also the matter of whether Google’s AI Overviews provide accurate results.

Some users claim the model frequently gets things wrong. And its accuracy record is inconsistent.

“It became the laughingstock of the internet in mid-2024 for suggesting glue as a way to keep cheese from sliding off homemade pizza,” writes Max Delaney at TechRadar. “And we couldn't forget when it described running with scissors as ‘a(chǎn) cardio exercise that can improve your heart rate and require concentration and focus.’”

Understanding the Long Game

Ultimately, publishers find themselves in a tough spot — forced to choose among a range of unattractive options and figure out how to survive in an environment that seems increasingly stacked against them.

Some might argue it’s just market evolution — that publishers must adapt like so many industries before them, becoming Netflix instead of Blockbuster.

But we’ll surely continue seeing broader discussions around how we consume information and what that means in the second quarter of the 21^st century.

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